Barreras comerciales y crecimiento económico: evidencia desde Perú

The current trade war between the two largest economies in the world and recent attempts by some countries in the Latin American region to restrict trade through the application of tariffs suggest that the discussion about the impact of trade barriers on economic growth is a topic that requires permanent research. The objective is to assess the effects of tariff barriers on economic growth in Peru, period 1980-2022. Using econometric method, the relationship between per capita gross domestic product (as a proxy for economic growth) and the average nominal tariff (as a proxy for trade barriers) was analyzed. To estimate the parameters, Box-Cox transformation was employed followed by heteroscedasticity correction. According to the findings, there is empirical evidence of a strong, significant inverse relationship between the average nominal tariff and economic growth. Also, a better fit was achieved in the model when heteroscedasticity was corrected, going from an adjusted R² = 0,889805 to 0,970223 and from an Akaike information criterion = 691,3418 to 173,6755. It is concluded that high average nominal tariffs can negatively impact economic growth, slowing it down. Instead of applying protectionist policies, the government should encourage the export of products in which the country has comparative advantages and foster good trade relations with other countries to take advantage of innovations and utilize them to promote economic growth.